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The onset in the West Africa summer monsoon in June-July is one of the most important factors for agricultural planning in this highly vulnerable region, where the livelihood of large parts of the population relies on subsistence farming. A late onset for example can lead to a substantial reduction in yields, if the timing of planting is not adapted. A reliable prediction of the onset date is therefore an important factor to improve food security in West Africa. Currently used approaches are statistical models based on past observations and/or dynamical computer models run by operational forecast centres such as the Met Office. Unfortunately both show relatively low skill hampering an effective adaptation of agricultural practices.
Past research suggests that the onset is controlled by a range of factors including sea-surface temperatures, the state of the land surface and the strength and position of the Saharan heat low, which controls the southerly inflow of moist air into the West African subcontinent. In particular, interactions between precipitation, vegetation and soil moisture can have important effects on the monsoon system. However, the interplay of these processes and how to best represent them in dynamical models are still far from being well understood.
This studentship will use recent data from field campaigns, satellites and other observing systems to investigate the physical mechanisms of the monsoon onset. In addition the Met Office Unified Model, which is used for operational forecasting over West Africa, will be investigated with respect to how to improve predictions on seasonal and shorter timescales. This will include diagnosing existing model output, but also actively running sensitivity experiments with e.g. prescribed sea-surface temperatures and soil moisture.
This project has been approved as a "CASE studentship" by the Met Office. The successful candidate will have the opportunity to visit West African organisations involved in seasonal forecasting operations such as ACMAD in Niamey, Niger. The project will contribute to the DfID-Met Office Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) and the Africa Process Evaluation Group (PEG) at the Met Office. The shared supervision between Leeds and the Met Office will provide strong support for the PhD candidate and ensure application of the results in forecast operations. This way results from this project are expected to contribute to improving food security within West African communities in the long run.
Funding Notes:
Only UK students are eligible for this project. A good first degree (1 or high 2i), or a good Masters degree in a physical or mathematical discipline, such as mathematics, physics, geophysics, engineering or meteorology is required.
Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) 2008 Results