Geo-hazards, climate risk and the spatial economics of cities: quantifying theeconomic vulnerability and resilience of cities in developing countries

Many of the great challenges of the 21st Century are closely connected to cities and the risks
associated with a changing climate and a range of geo-hazards from extreme weather such as
typhoons and floods to volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and rising sea levels. As the process of
urbanization leads to an even larger percentage of the population inhabiting urban areas and the
continued agglomeration of economic activity and firms in cities, obtaining a clear understanding
of how cities work and how they are able to adapt to current and future environmental and geohazard
risk is crucial. Insight into what makes cities in developing countries successful places for
innovation and economic development in a riskier world is not only relevant for scientific
purposes but also has clear policy implications: good interventions can only be designed based on
detailed knowledge of the underlying geographical, economic and social mechanisms.
This project will combine aspects of the economic and geography literatures to ask fundamental
questions that underlie the process of urbanization coupled with an understanding of how these
processes impact the vulnerability and resilience of households, firms, cities and countries.
Questions include: What are the main forces behind the growth in urban density? What role does
spatial structure play in the economic outcomes of cities? What are the economic and
environmental implications of different spatial configurations of activity? How can cities be
designed to withstand changes in climate, pollution and extreme weather events? How does
urbanization affect energy efficiency and communication and transport costs? To answer these
questions the project will be primarily empirical in nature and will make use of novel sources of
Big Data and modern tools of quantitative geography and applied econometrics to obtain
exogenous sources of variation that allow causal interpretations. In this context, the research
design will include for example, quasi-natural experiments, propensity score matching, (spatial)
differences in differences, or advanced spatial statistics and econometrics.
After becoming the majority at some point in 2008, the world’s urban population is expected to
increase throughout the century. Most of this growth will occur in the cities of the developing
world, a majority of which are found in locations that are at high risk of geo-hazards. To account
for this, and achieve the maximum academic and policy impact possible, the project will focus the
empirical analysis on the urban system of a developing country or region.