Climate change impacts on wildfire risk in seasonally dry forests (JONES_UENV23ARIES) at University of East Anglia on FindAPhD.com

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Dr Matthew Jones No more applications being accepted Funded PhD Project (UK Students Only)

Norwich United Kingdom Applied Statistics Data Analysis Environmental Geography Environmental Physics Mathematical Modelling Physical Geography Probability Remote Sensing Statistics Stochastic Processes

About the Project

Secondary Supervisor - Prof. Sander Veraverbeke, Faculty of Science - Earth and Climate, VU Amsterdam

Supervisory Team - Prof. John Abatzoglou, School of Engineering, University of California, Merced & Prof. Manoj Joshi, School of Environmental Sciences, UEA

Scientific background

Wildfires in the seasonally dry forests of western North America, Australia, and the Mediterranean have had record-breaking impacts on livelihoods, economies, ecosystems, and even carbon storage in recent years. Lightning strikes have been implicated as a major ignition source in these regions, however limited observations of lightning have until now restricted the assessment of relationships between lightning and wildfire in a changing climate. Consequently, the potential impact of climate change on wildfire ignitions by lightning are poorly understood.

Wildfire ignitions occur disproportionately during extremely hot and dry conditions, when vegetation is at its driest and most flammable. Such fire-prone weather conditions are becoming more frequent globally due to climate change. Moreover, global warming might also promote increases in lightning frequency over land. Consequently, climate change presents compound risks of wildfire occurrence by enhancing both forest flammability and ignition opportunities.

This project will use observations to unravel the contribution of lightning ignitions to modern wildfire patterns in seasonally dry forests, and subsequently employ climate model projections to evaluate the impact of future climate change on lightning ignitions.

The project will improve understanding of how wildfire risks may change across the world's forests in future, with the view to help society prepare and adapt to changing risks and to optimise the planning of climate-smart and fire-smart re/afforestation programmes.

Research Methodology

With the support of a international supervisory team, the student will:

Identify lightning-ignited wildfires by combining observations of lightning and fire from satellites and ground-based sensors.
Evaluate the regional impact of lightning strikes on spatial and temporal patterns of wildfire.
Examine the climatic thresholds that determine whether lightning ignites wildfires.
Predict future changes in wildfire risk resulting from compound increases in extreme weather and lightning, based on climate model projections.

Training

Programming with Python/R (advanced level): data analysis, machine learning, geospatial analysis.
NCAS climate modelling summer school
Overseas visits to co-supervisors in California (2 months) and Amsterdam (1 month).
Visits to the UK Met Office to interact with fire and lightning modellers.
Support to present at international conferences and submit findings to academic journals.

Person Specification

Degree or international equivalent in any quantitative or natural sciences discipline (e.g. Physics, Mathematics, Computer Science, Environmental Sciences, Meteorology, Chemistry).

Experience of using programming languages (e.g. Python or R) to analyse scientific data is desirable.

Further information: http://mattwjones.co.uk/research-team-and-open-positions

The start date is October 2023.

Funding Notes

This project has been shortlisted for funding by the ARIES NERC DTP. Successful candidates will be awarded a NERC studentship, which covers fees, stipend (£17,668 for 2022/23) and funding to support the doctoral research. Excellent applicants from quantitative disciplines may be considered for an additional three months’ studentship funding.

Unfortunately, no additional funding is available to assist with relocation or visa costs.

ARIES encourages applications from all, regardless of gender, ethnicity, disability, age, or sexual orientation. Academic qualifications are considered alongside relevant non-academic experience.

For further information, please visit www.aries-dtp.ac.uk

References

1 Jones, M. W., Abatzoglou, J. T., Veraverbeke, S., Andela, N., Lasslop, G., Forkel, M., ... & Le Quéré, C. (2022). Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change. Reviews of Geophysics, e2020RG000726. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726
2 Veraverbeke, S., Rogers, B. M., Goulden, M. L., Jandt, R. R., Miller, C. E., Wiggins, E. B., & Randerson, J. T. (2017). Lightning as a major driver of recent large fire years in North American boreal forests. Nature Climate Change, 7(7), 529-534. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3329
3 Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C. A., Balch, J. K., & Bradley, B. A. (2016). Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US. Environmental Research Letters, 11(4), 045005. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045005/meta
4 Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., & Barbero, R. (2019). Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(1), 326-336. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959
5 RG Harrison, MM Joshi, K Pascoe, Inferring convective responses to El Niño with atmospheric electricity measurements at Shetland 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 044028 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044028

Where will I study?

University of East Anglia

We’re one of the UK’s leading research institutions, ranked 10th in the UK for the quality of our research outputs and with more than 1,500 research students.