Cryospheric and hydrological responses to a warming High Mountain Asia

Summary

This project investigates the impact of a warming climate by mapping the rate the ice loss across High Mountain Asia and analysing its impact on water sustainability and flood risk in the downstream.

Project background

Tibet is known as the 'Water Tower of Asia,' providing water to about 2 billion people and supporting critical ecosystems in High Mountain Asia and the Tibetan Plateau, where many of the largest Asian river systems originate. This region is also one of the areas most vulnerable to the compounding effects of climate change and human activities. Any changes to the hydrology of this region -- whether it is too little or too much water -- impact the economy and livelihood of millions of people in nearby countries.

Permafrost is the cryosphere component for which there is the least knowledge. However, recent advances in remote sensing techniques, such as satellite radar interferometry, and the rapidly expanding satellite imagery since the launches of the Sentinel-1 satellite constellation have allowed us to measure mm/yr level ground deformation over continental scales, including the most hard-to-reach places. 

Recent studies have shown a strong spatial correlation between the modelled permafrost extent and the subsidence extent across the Qilianshan, northeast Tibetan Plateau, suggesting the rapid melting of permafrost across High Mountain Asia. The permafrost melt is being drained downstream, causing an uplift signal wherever a river is blocked by a topographic barrier, potentially increasing the risks of flood and slope failure. Subsidence is also observed over the oasis In the Gobi Desert along the Hexi Corridor, where groundwater is extracted for irrigation. This brings questions of water sustainability and food security and how it might impact economic transition and societal changes.

Thus, this project not only addresses important fundamental science questions related to the climate impact on the cryosphere and hydrosphere, but also aims to deliver societal impact by improving flood risk and geohazard risk assessment for local governments and the global insurance sector, and by informing policies and regulations on sustainable water usage and agricultural practices. 

Research questions

1. Where and how fast is permafrost melting?
2. Where is the melt water going?
3. Where do we expect elevated flood risk?
4. How do we combine satellite imagery and hydrological modelling to quantify nonstationary flood risk?
5. How does ice loss from High Mountain Asia impact water resources and the sustainability of agricultural practices downstream?

Methodology

Year 1: Large-scale velocity mapping over High-Mountain Asia using Sentinel-1 InSAR data to identify spatial patterns and measure rates of subsidence and uplift signals.

Year 2: Time series analysis to quantify the amplitude, seasonality, and systematic trend of the freeze-and-thaw cycles of permafrost and the aquifer recharge cycles of the agricultural land irrigated by ground water. There might be opportunities for field trips with local collaborators for ground-truthing remote-sensing measurements. 

Year 3: Synthesize InSAR velocity fields and time series with land cover classification, historical climate variables (precipitation, temperature, etc), and drainage analysis to model the cryospheric and hydrological responses to the warming climate and thus forecast future trends in flood risk and water resources.

Training

A comprehensive training programme will be provided comprising both specialist scientific training and generic transferable and professional skills. The student will have the opportunity to attend the COMET InSAR workshop, and will receive training in hydrological/hydrodynamic modelling, if needed.

Requirements

This project welcomes applications from all candidates with a quantitative degree, preferably but not required to be related to Earth Science, Physical Geography, Hydrology, Hydrogeology, Atmospheric Physics, Geophysics, Physics, Applied Mathematics. GIS and programming skills are desirable, but most important is a willingness to learn. There may be opportunities for fieldwork, but prior field experience is not required. 

CASE partner: Terra Motus Ltd

Supervisors

Qi OuUniversity of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences[Email Address Removed]www.ed.ac.uk/profile/dr-qi-ouSimon MouldsSchool of GeoSciences[Email Address Removed]www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/persons/simon-mouldsBeatriz Recinos RivasSchool of GeoSciences[Email Address Removed]www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/persons/beatriz-recinos-rivasRichard EsserySchool of GeoSciences[Email Address Removed]

E5 supervisors are happy to hear from candidates who would wish to adapt the project to their own ideas and research background.

CASE studentship

This is a CASE project which benefits from the association of an external non-academic partner to provide additional expertise, access to data, labs and facilities (in some cases), and a placement. CASE studentships are a great opportunity to apply research in real-world settings (e.g. industry, businesses, charities) and to open up to non-academic careers.

Application Process

Apply for this project