Development and application of a virtual estuary model of the Humber to address 21st century water and sediment management challenges

The Humber is a strategically important region vulnerable to tidal flooding. This project will work with the Environment Agency (EA) to build the first high resolution 3D numerical hydro-morphodynamic model of the Humber estuary and use it to assess water and sediment management options.

Background:

The Humber estuary and the surrounding low-lying areas are home to 500,000 people, 120,000 ha of agricultural land, and industries worth over £17.5bn GVA. These include the second largest chemical cluster in the UK, two of the country’s six oil refineries, and five power stations. More than 25% of the UK’s primary energy supply flows through the region, and its ports handle 14% of UK trade. As such, the Humber is of national strategic importance. The wide, shallow, estuary provides extensive wildlife habitat in its large intertidal zones, including multiple designated conservation areas, but due to this same geography the region is at severe risk from tidal flooding during storm surges. Following the catastrophic storm surge of 1953, a tidal barrier was built to protect the city of Hull against a 1 in 200 year event, but the high water level of the most recent severe storm surge, in 2013, was within 0.3 m of overtopping the barrier. Expected sea level rise in the next hundred years is 0.3 – 1.2 m.

In 2008 the EA published its Humber Flood Risk Management Strategy, aiming to provide adequate protection for 25 years. Following the 2013 storm surge the EA embarked on a review of the strategy, leading to the “Humber 2100+” project looking at longer-term, systems-based solutions for water management. Potential approaches range from local resilience improvements and “living with water” to a large-scale Thames-style barrier.

Aims:

There is historical evidence that the morphodynamics of the Humber do not behave in a textbook fashion in response to long-term changes, such as lunar nodal cycles or sea level rise. This project aims to simulate and account for this atypical behaviour when predicting (a) future changes to inter-tidal habitats (b) the effectiveness and environmental impacts of water and sediment management scenarios developed by the EA.

Methods:

A high-resolution, regional scale, 3D numerical model will be built incorporating the effects of meteorological and tidal boundary forcing and river input variability. Following validation, simulations will be run with scenarios informed by the Humber 2100+ project. The model will be constructed using an established regional-scale “shallow water” modelling code, e.g. Delft3D, FVCOM, TELEMAC 3D, etc.

Partners: The EA are a CASE partner and will host the student for periods of time. Jacobs Engineering Group are technical consultants to the EA on the Humber 2100+ project and the possibility of them co-hosting the student is being explored. Associated British Ports operate the Humber ports, and will provide survey data.

Benefits:

• Improved understanding of the morphodynamic processes of the Humber estuary.

• Predictions of the effectiveness and consequences of specific flood defence scenarios that are being considered by the Humber 2100+ project.

• A validated hydromorphodynamic model of the Humber, which will be a strategic asset for marine management in the Humber region.

Benefits to student:

Extensive learning in numerical modelling, coastal and estuarine processes, high performance computing, and flood management and developing contacts in the academic community and public/commercial sectors.

See the Panorama website (https://panorama-dtp.ac.uk/research/development-and-application-of-a-virtual-estuary-model-of-the-humber-to-address-21st-century-water-and-sediment-management-challenges/) for more information on the Project, the Supervisory Team, training and the working environment.

For more information on this research proposal, please watch this excerpt taken from a recent webinar on Panorama DTP projects: https://youtu.be/o3KCh-CcX3c 

Student Profile

You should have a strong background in one of the relevant degree courses (https://panorama-dtp.ac.uk/research/development-and-application-of-a-virtual-estuary-model-of-the-humber-to-address-21st-century-water-and-sediment-management-challenges/) (ie you should normally have, or expect to obtain, at least a 2:1 Honours degree (or international equivalent (https://www.hull.ac.uk/choose-hull/study-at-hull/international/country-search.aspx))).