This project is one of a number that are in competition for funding from the NERC Great Western Four+ Doctoral Training Partnership (GW4+ DTP). The GW4+ DTP consists of the Great Western Four alliance of the University of Bath, University of Bristol, Cardiff University and the University of Exeter plus five Research Organisation partners: British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, the Natural History Museum and Plymouth Marine Laboratory. The partnership aims to provide a broad training in earth and environmental sciences, designed to train tomorrow’s leaders in earth and environmental science. For further details about the programme please see http://nercgw4plus.ac.uk/
Project Background
Despite the incredibly high stakes of policy making for climate change, there are still large uncertainties when it comes to understanding how the Earth’s climate and biosphere will respond to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Even more profound are the uncertainties associated with the consequences such impacts will have on human societies now and far into the future. But projections about how climate change may play out into the future are key to decision making now. In the words of the former Defra Chief Scientist, "people are pouring concrete on the basis of these [climate] projections". Billions of pounds are being committed to climate mitigation and adaptation now, on the basis of projected impacts that may not emerge for many decades, even centuries. What if these over or under estimate future impacts? Are we at risk of omitting vitally important processes in our assessments? How can very rare but potentially catastrophic events be factored into models? Policy makers, industry and society must work with these deep uncertainties. What can we learn from other areas of policy that also necessarily deal with deep uncertainty? And, how can society effectively respond to challenges that are inherently probabilistic?
Project Aims and Methods
This interdisciplinary project has two main aims. First, it will assess how deep uncertainties involved in the simulation of complex physical and social systems are addressed within existing and proposed future General Circulation Models and Integrated Assessment Models on which national and international climate policy is based. In doing so, it will ask are there effective limits of model complexity when it comes to producing outputs that have relevance to policy and wider society [1]? Second, it will investigate how uncertainty and confidence in climate science is communicated between scientists, decision-makers, and the public [2]. It will explore different methods currently in use, and also alternative methods used in other fields of science. The supervisory team has a unique skill set to support the student through the project. Their expertise spans the academic fields of sustainability science, complex systems simulation, climate science and science communication. All supervisors also have significant experience across the policy, practitioner and media realms.
The student will work closely with the Met Office Hadley Centre staff involved in UKCP18. This is a state-of-the-art, highly complex climate analysis tool which accounts for uncertainties in (1) future emissions, (2) the translation of emissions into concentration pathways, (3) climate sensitivity, and (4) regional climate responses. These uncertainties are potentially of crucial importance to the effectiveness of decisions in climate policy, especially for adaptation where quantitative information is required to inform long-term planning and implementation of adaptation measures. An initial aim of the project will be to find communication methods which are most effective for enabling decision-makers to act appropriately in the face of the often very large uncertainty in climate projections. This will be important new knowledge for the Met Office Hadley Centre, the wider climate modelling community and have a beneficial impact on collaborations between science and decision-makers and help further develop the effectiveness of climate modelling in informing societal and policy responses.
The student will work with the users of climate projections to investigate how they interpret the outputs of climate models and how their understanding of confidence and uncertainty affects their decisions. This will involve working with policy makers, journalists, activists and the public. There is significant scope for the student to shape the aims and objective of the project.
Eligibility
NERC GW4+ DTP studentships are open to UK and Irish nationals who, if successful in their applications, will receive a full studentship including payment of university tuition fees at the home fees rate.
A limited number of full studentships are also available to international students which are defined as EU (excluding Irish nationals), EEA, Swiss and all other non-UK nationals. For further details please see the NERC GW4+ website.
Those not meeting the nationality and residency requirements to be treated as a ‘home’ student may apply for a limited number of full studentships for international students. Although international students are usually charged a higher tuition fee rate than ‘home’ students, those international students offered a NERC GW4+ Doctoral Training Partnership full studentship starting in 2022 will only be charged the ‘home’ tuition fee rate (which will be covered by the studentship).
International applicants need to be aware that you will have to cover the cost of your student visa, healthcare surcharge and other costs of moving to the UK to do a PhD. More information on this is available from the universities you are applying to.
The conditions for eligibility of home fees status are complex and you will need to seek advice if you have moved to or from the UK (or Republic of Ireland) within the past 3 years or have applied for settled status under the EU Settlement Scheme.
How to apply
In order to formally apply for the PhD Project you will need to go to the following web page.
https://www.exeter.ac.uk/study/funding/award/?id=4245
The closing date for applications is 1600 hours GMT on Friday 10th January 2022.
Interviews will be held between 28th February and 4th March 2022.
If you have any general enquiries about the application process please email [Email Address Removed] or phone: 0300 555 60 60 (UK callers) or +44 (0) 1392 723044 (EU/International callers). Project-specific queries should be directed to the main supervisor.
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