The Himalayas are rapidly deglaciating due to climate change:this threatens the water security of ~1 billion people downstream and increases the risk of natural hazards, whilst rapid growth of downstream populations and infrastructure increases vulnerability (Immerzeel et al., 2020). Thus, there is an urgent need to quantify how natural hazards may evolve in the Himalaya, as climate warms. Himalayan glacier shrinkage has promoted the formation of glacial lakes, which can rapidly generate Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs): these can be triggered by the failure of the natural barrier and/or inputs to a glacial lake, such as landslides (Westoby et al., 2015; Rounce et al., 2016). GLOFs are highly destructive, causing loss of life and major damage to property and infrastructure (Rounce et al., 2017; Bolch et al 2011). Bhutan is highly vulnerable to GLOFs (Carrivick et al. 2016) , as its population, cultural heritage and infrastructure are all concentrated in major river valleys, which lie downstream of large glacial lake lakes, and it relies heavily on hydroelectric power. Thus, there is an urgent need to quantify how GLOF risk may evolve in Bhutan, as its glaciers shrink due to climate change. This project will focus on the Lunana region, as it is home to Bhutan’s most threatening lakes and lies upstream of major infrastructure and population centres. Specifically, the project aims to:
· Integrate remotely sensed and directly measured data, to quantify changes in Lunana’s glaciers, their proglacial lakes, and their moraine dams for 2010-2022.
· Use numerical modelling to forecast the near-future evolution of Lunana’s glaciers and how this translates to meltwater generation, and hence lake volume and extent.
· Utilize ensemble inundation runs to assess how flood scenarios differ with the likely impacts of climate warming, including: i) increased lake volumes; ii) increased exposure of lakes to mass movements, as lakes expand; and iii) degradation of natural dams.
The project will provide training in: GIS and remote sensing; use of low-cost, near-real time monitoring equipment; fieldwork in high-mountain environments; and numerical modelling. The project is CASE, in partnership with the United Nations Humanitarian Country Team and the student will collaborate with the relevant agencies in the Royal Government of Bhutan, particularly the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology.
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