Seabirds are long-lived species that have evolved towards long generation times making them especially vulnerable to environmental change. Although they spend most of their lives at sea, all species must come ashore to breed at a minimum, resulting in exposure to a range of cumulative marine and terrestrial pressures. Consequently, seabirds are amongst the most rapidly declining groups of birds worldwide, with pelagic species especially threatened from fisheries bycatch, predation and climate change (Dias, 2019).
The Northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) is no exception and their UK breeding population has been declining since the late 1990s (http://jncc.defra.gov.uk/page-2868). However, there is substantial unexplained spatial-temporal variability in population trends across the UK with some populations decreasing while others remain stable. Previous studies revealed that fulmar metapopulation structure is consistent with isolation by distance (Burg, 2003). Thus, distinct population trends are likely to be related to colony characteristics such as local density dependent processes, predation and/or bycatch.
Understanding the relative importance and the interactions between these multiple threats is essential to disentangle both population and global metapopulation functioning. It is especially interesting to understand consequences of the differential effects of these threats on individuals ― depending on age, sex or experience. Such individual-level heterogeneity can affect the long-term metapopulation dynamics by changing the ability of populations to adapt to current and future environmental change.
Bycatch and predation are a major sources of heterogeneity in the structure and dynamics of natural populations. To date, UK longline fishery bycatch is estimated to be 2200-9100 birds/year and its mitigation could theoretically result in a population increase of 2.1-17.1% (Miles, 2020). However, this estimate does not consider heterogeneity in bycatch mortality nor the effects of additional (and interactive) lethal and non-lethal effects of predation on fulmar metapopulation dynamics.
The PhD project will address these knowledge gaps by using a range of spatially explicit metapopulation modelling approaches. First, the student will collate and integrate exiting high and low resolution demographic data. Next, the student will use remote monitoring devices to collect data and quantify further sources of demographic structure at large spatio-temporal scale. Finally, the student will use this information to explain differences found in demographic rates across colonies, reduce uncertainty in metapopulation models and enhance our predictions of species’ responses to potential conservation and management actions at different spatial and temporal scales.
The proposal will use exceptional existing datasets (i.e. seabird census data and long-term capture-mark-recapture monitoring) alongside with data from the UK Bycatch Monitoring Programme. The project combines strong empirical and theoretical modelling components with fieldwork to collect further empirical data on the impact of predation in demographic rates and behaviour through remote monitoring techniques (e.g. camera traps). This project has been co-develop with relevant stakeholders (JNCC and MSS) thus maximising opportunities to develop transferrable skills and networking.
More project details are available here:
https://www.quadrat.ac.uk/quadrat-projects/
How to apply:
https://www.quadrat.ac.uk/how-to-apply/
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