QUADRAT DTP: Vulnerability of UK marine species and communities to climate change and implications for adaptation planning

Background: Global warming is having a significant impact on marine ecosystems. The shallow continental shelf is warming more rapidly, with the North Sea considered a global hotspot of warming. Climate change is already known to impact the distribution, growth rates, and phenology of marine species (see the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnerships latest report card http://www.mccip.org.uk/ ). Comprehensive climate vulnerability assessments (a combination of exposure and sensitivity to climate change) have not, to date, been undertaken for marine species and communities in UK and Irish waters. Therefore, it is difficult to specify which species are at greatest risk from continued climate change or, conversely, which species could be comparatively resilient.

This project will assess vulnerability of marine species in UK waters that are commercially important or a priority for conservation using methodology already being applied in US and Australian waters. Because detailed knowledge for all relevant species within any marine ecosystem is limited, trait-based vulnerability assessments are widely used. These semi-quantitative assessments assume that the biological traits underlying sensitivity and adaptive capacity will determine the species’ response to climate exposure (Spencer et al. 2019). The results of climate vulnerability assessments are used for informing the management of commercial fish and shellfish stocks (Hare et al. 2016) and to guide policymakers to identify priorities for adaptation planning (Pecl et al 2014).

Project: The project with undertake a trait-based vulnerability assessment of the UK and Irish marine ecosystems by determining the exposure and sensitivity of individual species from existing data sources, publications and expert opinions. The species considered will include those of commercial importance and those with a pressing conservation need. The project will begin by reviewing the range of methodologies that are applied to both data-rich (Spencer et al 2018) and data-limited marine ecosystems in order to determine which approach is most suited to the data available for UK species. As the European Continental Shelf is a well-studied marine ecosystem, a comprehensive knowledge base is available. Projected future values of range of exposure factors (e.g., temperature) for these regional seas are available from UK Meteorological Office (UKCP18; https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ ). Sensitivity of many species can be evaluated using online data resources, such as Datras and Fishbase. To inform assessments of exposure existing species distribution models (from the international Marine Climate Change Centre, iMC3, at Cefas) will be used to determine whether a species responds to climate change by: i) tolerating changing condition in situ; ii) shifting the range to track climate conditions to which they are adapted; or iii) evolving tolerance or dispersal capability.

The project will be able to identify the following: i) species that are likely to have a higher vulnerability to climate change; (ii) critical knowledge gaps for key species; and (iii) priorities for adaptation planning. Communicating the results of this project to both government (Marine Scotland Science) and the fishing industry (e.g., Scottish Fishermen’s Federation) will be a priority in the final year.

Throughout the PhD, the student will work with national experts in climate change science including Marine Scotland, Cefas and NOAA Fisheries thereby developing in-depth knowledge about climate change, analytical skills and a comprehensive professional network.

More project details are available here: https://www.quadrat.ac.uk/projects/vulnerability-of-uk-marine-species-and-communities-to-climate-change-and-implications-for-adaptation-planning/

How to apply: https://www.quadrat.ac.uk/how-to-apply/