This project is one of a number that are in competition for funding from the NERC Great Western Four+ Doctoral Training Partnership (GW4+ DTP). The GW4+ DTP consists of the Great Western Four alliance of the University of Bath, University of Bristol, Cardiff University and the University of Exeter plus five Research Organisation partners: British Antarctic Survey, British Geological Survey, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, the Natural History Museum and Plymouth Marine Laboratory. The partnership aims to provide a broad training in earth and environmental sciences, designed to train tomorrow’s leaders in earth and environmental science. For further details about the programme please see http://nercgw4plus.ac.uk/
Project Background
Brazil is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, such as floods, droughts and landslides. Extreme rainfall in the region is frequently associated with organised storm systems such as mesoscale convective systems. Future changes in storms and rainfall over Brazil are likely to have large impacts on Brazilian society and ecosystems but are highly uncertain, partly because the current generation of global climate models (CMIP6 models) run at horizontal grid resolutions that are too coarse to explicitly represent convective storms. Without robust and accurate projections of future rainfall over Brazil, it is very difficult to plan and implement the climate adaptation measures (such as improved flood defences) that are urgently needed.
New cutting-edge climate simulations at kilometre-scale, convection-permitting resolution have recently been completed over South America. These simulations are likely to represent many elements of Brazilian climate more realistically than coarser resolution simulations, especially convective storms and their associated intense rainfall. This may be key to providing robust and actionable future projections of extreme precipitation. This project will help to provide improved projections of future climate change over Brazil, which will be used by Brazilian scientists and policymakers to make more informed decisions about how to reduce the vulnerability of Brazil to natural disasters and climate change.
Project Aims and Methods
This project will assess the representation of storms and their associated precipitation in state-of-the-art convection-permitting model (CPM) climate simulations. This will include a comparison with present-day observations, analysis of the response to climate change, and a comparison with coarser resolution simulations of both the representation of present-day climate and the response to climate change. Multiple storm-tracking approaches will be used to capture systems from the convective scale through to the mid-latitude storm scale as they track over Brazil.
This project will focus on answering the following research questions, but will also be strongly influenced by the student’s own ideas over the course of the studentship:
1) How well are storms over Brazil represented in the present-day CPM runs, when compared with observations? This will include analysis of the initiation, propagation, size and other characteristics of organised convective systems, together with their relationship to precipitation and precipitation extremes.
2) How do storms over Brazil respond to climate change in the CPM runs? Changes to organised convective systems and their relationship to precipitation will be examined. We will also explore the drivers of these changes, e.g. changes in moisture and large-scale atmospheric circulation.
3) How does model resolution affect storms over Brazil in present-day and future climates? CPM results will be compared with a storm tracking and precipitation analysis of coarser resolution global climate models.
Candidate requirements
The candidate must have achieved, or be expected to achieve, a first class or 2:1 degree in Meteorology, Oceanography, Mathematics, Physics, Environmental Science or related field. A Master’s level qualification with previous experience of conducting independent research is desirable. Knowledge of scientific programming languages (e.g., Python, Matlab, IDL, R) would be advantageous.
Training
The student will be offered a variety of courses at the University of Exeter including ‘Research Methodology’, ’Computation and Numerical Analysis’, ‘Modelling the Weather and Climate’, and ‘The Climate System’. Advanced skills training will be provided on the job where appropriate in climate physics, programming and numerical modelling and will be achieved through regular contact with supervisors.
Eligibility
NERC GW4+ DTP studentships are open to UK and Irish nationals who, if successful in their applications, will receive a full studentship including payment of university tuition fees at the home fees rate.
A limited number of full studentships are also available to international students which are defined as EU (excluding Irish nationals), EEA, Swiss and all other non-UK nationals. For further details please see the NERC GW4+ website.
Those not meeting the nationality and residency requirements to be treated as a ‘home’ student may apply for a limited number of full studentships for international students. Although international students are usually charged a higher tuition fee rate than ‘home’ students, those international students offered a NERC GW4+ Doctoral Training Partnership full studentship starting in 2022 will only be charged the ‘home’ tuition fee rate (which will be covered by the studentship).
International applicants need to be aware that you will have to cover the cost of your student visa, healthcare surcharge and other costs of moving to the UK to do a PhD. More information on this is available from the universities you are applying to (contact details are provided in the project description that you are interested in.
The conditions for eligibility of home fees status are complex and you will need to seek advice if you have moved to or from the UK (or Republic of Ireland) within the past 3 years or have applied for settled status under the EU Settlement Scheme.
How to apply
In order to formally apply for the PhD Project you will need to go to the following web page.
https://www.exeter.ac.uk/study/funding/award/?id=4256
The closing date for applications is 1600 hours GMT on Friday 10th January 2022.
Interviews will be held between 28th February and 4th March 2022.
If you have any general enquiries about the application process please email [Email Address Removed] or phone: 0300 555 60 60 (UK callers) or +44 (0) 1392 723044 (EU/International callers). Project-specific queries should be directed to the main supervisor.
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