About the Project
The aim of this project is to improve how severe thunderstorm risk is managed and mitigated. This will be achieved through the development of a stochastic, event-based thunderstorm hazard model that can be used to develop a severe thunderstorm climatology for a given region in the current climate and also determine how this climate will change into the future. This research will improve our understanding of severe thunderstorm activity and its drivers. It will also provide a decision support tool for policy makers, disaster managers and re/insurers who seek to better understand their exposure to severe thunderstorms and create innovative management solutions.
The stochastic thunderstorm hazard model will be developed using eastern Australia as a case study region, but the approach can be readily applied to other regions of the world. The general tasks required for completing the project include:
1. Identify the broad scale environmental conditions that lead to severe thunderstorm observations (primarily wind and hail) on the ground. This will require the coupling and analysis of surface weather, radar, satellite and global reanalysis databases.
2. Using global reanalysis data, determine the frequency of these thunderstorm conducive environments in the case study region.
3. Based on 2, develop a stochastic model of thunderstorm occurrence in the case study region. It will be important within this task to ensure the spatial correlation between thunderstorm events is maintained so the broad scale features that trigger them, e.g. frontal systems, are effectively modelled.
4. Repeat tasks 1-3 using historic data periods from within climate projection model outputs, then apply this new stochastic model to several future time periods and probabilistically quantify the expected change in thunderstorm activity.
Why not add a message here
Based on your current searches we recommend the following search filters.
Based on your current search criteria we thought you might be interested in these.
Are healthy diets really more expensive than unhealthy diets? Understanding drivers of choice of healthy and unhealthy food and drinks in Australia and the UK (Funded by the QUEX Institute)
University of Exeter