Seasonal to sub-decadal variability of extreme wind storms over Europe

Severe extra-tropical cyclones are the major natural hazard for the North-Atlantic/European region and especially for the UK. Extreme winter seasons may see up to 15-20 strong, partly damage prone events hitting, e.g. the UK and neighbouring countries. These severe storms are causing damages by extreme wind speeds as well as large precipitation rates. Impacts are manifold and lead to destruction of infrastructure as well as fatalities during the passage of the storm. For example, in 2015, at the end of the year, Winter Storms Desmond and Eva brought wide-scale flooding to the United Kingdom, causing overall losses of almost US$ 3bn, roughly US$ 2bn of which was insured (Munich Re, 2016).
This project will investigate key features of these catastrophic events by analysing state-of-the-art seasonal and decadal predictions. By means of systematic analyses of these forecast ensembles with respect to three major topics, the project will contribute to our wider understanding of drivers of seasonal, interannual to sub-decadal variability of these extreme hazards for Europe. The three main topics are:
• Seasonal and sub-decadal predictability (e.g., Befort et al., 2018; Walz et al., 2018b; Kruschke et al., 2014, Renggli et al., 2011),
• Time and spatial clustering of wind storms and their impacts (e.g., Walz et al., 2018a; Walz and Leckebusch, 2019a,b), and
• Investigations into the signal to noise paradox for extra-tropical cyclone prediction (Scaife & Smith, 2018).
This project is a collaboration between the University of Birmingham’s Meteorology and Climate group and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, a strategic partner of CENTA. The group of Dr Leckebusch is strongly linked to end-users of the derived climate change information, especially with respect to robust assessments of uncertainties. The group has extensive experience in real-world applications in meteorology, the realisation of interdisciplinary projects, excellent links to end-users and stakeholders, including industry, which sponsored multiple projects of the group. Prof Scaife is head of the world-leading Monthly to Decadal Prediction Group at the Met Office Hadley Centre. A placement at the Met Office and or in industry is planned during the project duration.
Further details to the work of the Meteorology and Climate Group at the University of Birmingham can be found here:
https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/activity/environmental-health/areas/meteorology-climate/index.aspx
Further details to the Met Office Hadley Centre Group for Monthly to Decadal Prediction can be found here:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal