Assessing Trajectories to Remain Within Planetary Boundaries in Scotland

The Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI) has identified a number of planetary processes necessary for life support, noting that for some of them the notional boundaries within which a ‘safe operating space’ for human development may exist have already been exceeded (Rockström et al., 2009; Steffen et al., 2015). These include atmospheric CO2 concentration, loss of genetic diversity, rate of nitrogen fixation from the atmosphere, and phosphorus entering the oceans. It is hypothesized that these boundaries represent limits beyond which tipping points exist in which variables may either rapidly transition to another state (e.g. sudden biodiversity loss due to the loss of keystone species), or due to the interconnectedness of the Earth system, it impacts on other variables which do. The so-called Planetary Boundaries (PB) concept was subsequently extended to incorporate the human social and economic dimensions through the development of the ‘Oxfam Doughnut’ (Raworth, 2012). The rationale of this was that the outer edge of the ‘doughnut’ defines the biophysical limits and the inner ring minimum social and economic ‘entitlements’, which include food, water, income, education, resilience, voice, jobs, energy, social equity, gender equality and health. A recent analysis of the doughnut for Scotland (Sayers et al., 2014) concluded that GHG emissions, N and P fluxes in the landscape and ocean, contribution to ozone depletion, and air pollution are all exceeding their boundaries. However, there was much uncertainty in estimating these boundaries (e.g. the safe rate of N fixation from the atmosphere), and there were some notable exceptions where data apparently was not available, including biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, and fresh water availability.
The aim of the proposed PhD project is to analyse in more detail Scotland’s planetary boundary variables, as well as variables not considered in the Sayers et al. analysis. These are data that the James Hutton Institute collects and maintains (or if not, know of the available data and how it can be accessed) so the proposed project will collate this information, and using international assessments (perhaps modified for Scottish conditions), develop appropriate boundary estimates for these variables. Additionally, while the Sayers et al. analysis provides only a static snapshot, the work could also help to assess trends in the variables based on historical developments and the direction of travel, and whether there might be possible tipping points in these variables. The project will contribute towards a better understanding of Scotland’s contribution to the trajectories of planetary processes essential to life, and some of which are currently being exceeded, and, as such, will help achievement of the country’s international commitments to meet UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It will also contribute to the global level debate on planetary boundaries and a safe and just operating space for humanity.
Candidates should have a keen awareness of environmental issues and an interest in systems modelling as applied to sustainability science. Depending on existing skills, the successful candidate will receive training in simulation modelling and scenario analysis. In addition, he/she will gain valuable insights into understanding socio-ecological systems and experience in interdisciplinary working, not only from the supervisors’ expertise in ecology and systems approaches, but also from having access to help from the wide range of disciplines at the JHI, including empirical scientists and modellers. With many funders requiring interdisciplinary approaches in the research they fund, this integrative experience should stand the student in good stead in the job market later on (see Nature 525 Special Issue on interdisciplinarity).