Environmental Change & the unique Teesdale vegetation assemblage: Disjunct relicts, adaptive capacity, future survival & management.

Simulation studies of expected changes in species ranges and changes in ecosystem dynamics have indicated that rapidly-changing climatic conditions could significantly thwart natural-area protection efforts at global, regional and local scales.
To be effective, potential management responses must be rigorously assessed with focused and practical ecological analysis. A prime subject for such a study in the UK is the unique “Teesdale Assemblage” in the north Pennines.
Many of the species found in Teesdale today have disjunct modern distributions, derived from a previously more geographically widespread vegetation type and the assemblage contains species of rarity within the UK. Of particular note is the phytogeographical diversity of the flora which encompasses relict populations of pre-Alpine, Alpine, Arctic-Alpine and sub-Arctic species and Mediterranean species at the southern or northern edge of their latitudinal range, respectively.
The continued existence of these nationally-rare species to the present day is thought to be a result of the combination of a cool, wet, climate (a climatically-marginal location for the growth of these plants), a continued history of grazing (mainly by sheep) and the low soil nutrient status, especially on outcrops of the saccharoidal (‘sugar’) limestone. Upper Teesdale therefore potentially represents a critical locality for the study of certain species at the boundary of their natural latitudinal distribution within the UK and their fate in the face of ongoing climatic change.
Key questions that will be addressed are: How will such species fare in the face of a warming climate (for example, minimum temperatures have increased by 0.38°C/decade4); what role might adaptive capacity play in determining the fate of the Upper Teesdale populations of these species and what are the implications for future conservation management of key components of this unique vegetation assemblage in response to a range of future climatic scenarios (both mean changes and/or stochastic extreme events) and management regime?
Aims: (1) To determine the present-day distribution of selected key rare species across the NNR (e.g. Gentiana verna (Spring Gentian); Polygala amarella,(Dwarf Milkwort); Viola rupestris (Teesdale Violet); Helianthemum oelandicum ssp. levigatum (Hoary Rock-rose)) including characterization of microclimate, soils and plant competition; (2) to characterize the genetic diversity of these species at a population level using high-throughput molecular markers; (3) to determine the degree of adaptive capacity of these species to potential future climate change scenarios, including extreme events (frost, drought) as well as mean temperature amelioration; (4) to sample the same species from other disjunct populations representing the extremes of present-day persistence of the species (extreme oceanic lowland (Burren, Ireland) to continental climate (Öland, Sweden) gradient), allowing a better mechanistic understanding of population resilience and potential adaptation to change at the range edges, relative to Teesdale.
The project is a collaboration with Professor A Jump, University of Stirling and is a CASE (Co-operative Award in Science and Engineering) award in collaboration with Natural England (Dr M Morecroft).
The project will employ both field and laboratory studies.