Global flood predictability, early warning and the communication of probabilistic forecasts.

Earth system models are increasingly being used to support decision-making processes in disaster risk management, for example, they can be used in early warning systems for natural hazards, where the forecasts can lead to disaster risk reduction. However, the complexities of the models mean that this is not straightforward, and this is compounded by the difficulties in communicating probabilistic forecast information so that it is useful for decision-making. GloFAS is jointly developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) . It couples state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model to produce daily ensemble forecasts of river discharge with a forecast horizon of 30 days across a global river network. The project will work closely with GloFAS developers at ECMWF and the JRC, and with the GLoFAS research team at the University of Reading. The project will evaluate variations in predictability of floods at the global scale, and how this can be effectively for early flood warning.