Understanding dynamics of abundance and distribution change in British birds

Background: It has long been observed that species with large geographical distributions also have large local populations. Surprisingly, however, within species variation in abundance and distribution trends can be greater than between species: many British birds have recently expanded distributions whilst simultaneously declining in population and vice versa. Understanding populations and distributions are arguably the fundamental goals of ecology: if we can unify the two we can go a long way to tackling applied problems in conservation science, such as what makes one species more likely to suffer catastrophic declines than another? This project aims to explain the causes of variation in the abundance-distribution relationship and will provide insights into both fundamental properties of populations and help tackle applied questions.

Working with scientists at the University of York, CEH and the British Trust for Ornithology, the student will access some of the best population and distribution datasets in the word, learn about British birds and will gain a thorough training in cutting-edge methods of data analysis.

Objectives: To tackle both fundamental and applied aims the student will use BTO data on distribution and abundance change of British birds to test the following hypotheses:
(1) Stronger intra-specific distribution/abundance relationships are associated with strong environmental control of local carrying capacity;
weaker relationships are associated with direct environmental control of mortality.
(2) Positive intra-specific distribution/abundance relationships are strongest for increasing.
(3) Strength of weather associations with temporal and climatic associations with spatial variation will vary with life-history traits

Methods and training: This project requires the student to learn and develop both a sound understanding of avian ecology and solid quantitative skills. The student will work with BTO partners to access and understand the Breeding Birds Survey and the three British Bird Atlases, gaining field experience through participating in BTO surveys; an essential component of understanding data. Most of the time will be spent using cutting-edge quantitative modelling skills to tackle core questions around intra-specific distribution-abundance relationships.

The student will be based in the Biology Department at the University of York, in a dynamic and growing research group that has developed several of the current state-of-the art methods for modelling distribution and abundance, but will be encouraged to spend time with partners at CEH and BTO. The supervisors have particular experience of tackling applied conservation problems and work with a range of governmental and NGO partners in the UK and worldwide to achieve these aims.