Fully-funded ARIES PhD studentship - Modelling butterfly abundance at varying spatial scales to inform conservation delivery

A key feature of statistical models applied to butterflies involves accounting for seasonal variation in counts, as butterflies emerge throughout the year via one or more broods. Flight period patterns vary geographically, for example emergence can be later further north in the UK. Seasonal patterns are typically assumed to be fixed across space. Counts from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS) are made under standardised conditions to minimise bias due to variation in the probability of detecting individuals.

The aim of this project is to better explain butterfly population dynamics during a period of rapid environmental change, to project future changes under scenarios of climate change and to create direct benefits for the conservation of butterflies.

Objectives
1. Determine whether accounting for spatial variation in phenology influences population trend estimates, particularly at varying scales, where data are likely to be sparser and more susceptible to variation.

2. Assess the influence of external factors such as weather and time of day on counts and population trends. Identify optimal times of day for detecting target species and testing for evidence of lower counts on hot days as butterfly activity may drop in extreme temperatures. Fine-tune UKBMS sampling procedures and guidance.

3. Extend knowledge of butterfly lifespans. Further verification of recently developed models via simulation-based testing and comparison with estimates from capture-recapture data. Assess the influence of lifespans on butterfly population trends and determine their relevance for measuring species conservation status e.g. classifying Red Lists.

4. Account for lifespan and variation in detection to produce more robust population trend estimates. Trends for under-utilised local scales or habitat types will provide new scientific insights and will allow Butterfly Conservation to better assess and refine conservation and policy measures to inform where to direct management efforts. This has particular relevance for Priority Species for conservation action and for some more common butterfly species for which the drivers of recent population declines are not well understood.

This is a collaborative project between the University of Kent and Butterfly Conservation (https://butterfly-conservation.org)



Additional Information

ARIES is committed to equality & diversity, and inclusion of students of any and all backgrounds. All ARIES Universities have Athena Swan Bronze status as a minimum.

Students with high level numerical skills will be eligible for 3 months of additional stipend after the end of the 3.5 years to take advanced-level courses in branches of environmental sciences related to the project in the first 3-6 months of study.

Shortlisted applicants will be interviewed by ARIES on the 26th/27th February 2019, with shortlisting taking place at the University of Kent on the 31st of January.

Successful candidates who meet UKRI’s eligibility criteria will be awarded a NERC studentship - in 2018/19 the stipend is £14,777. In most cases, UK and EU nationals who have been resident in the UK for 3 years are eligible for a full award.

Applicants should have a good degree in a subject such as statistics, mathematics, or another scientific discipline with a substantial quantitative component. A keen interest in ecology is advantageous.

Supervisors
Dr Rachel McCrea, University of Kent and Dr Emily Dennis, Butterfly Conservation

This is a collaborative project between the University of Kent and Butterfly Conservation (https://butterfly-conservation.org)