Clear-air turbulence in a changing climate

Clear-air turbulence is a major hazard to aviation, and is the underlying cause of many people’s fear of air travel. In addition, clear-air turbulence contributes significantly to mixing across the tropopause, constraining the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Clear-air turbulence is caused by shear instabilities within upper-level atmospheric winds, which are projected to be modified by anthropogenic climate change. However, the consequences of climate change for clear-air turbulence have only recently been recognised. This PhD project will perform the first comprehensive analysis of clear-air turbulence in a changing climate. By studying a range of greenhouse-gas scenarios and climate models, the uncertainties in the future projections will be quantified. By studying reanalysis data, the future trends will be placed into a historical perspective. The findings will be of broad interest not only to the academic community, but also to the aviation industry and the general public.