Risk CDT – Joint probability analysis of coastal flood risk for new energy infrastructure

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This is a project within the multi-disciplinary EPSRC and ESRC Centre for Doctoral Training (CDT) on Quantification and Management of Risk & Uncertainty in Complex Systems & Environments, within the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty. The studentship is granted for 4 years and includes, in the first year, a Master in Decision Making under Risk & Uncertainty. The project includes extensive collaboration with prime industry to build an optimal basis for employability.

The UK Government’s investment in low carbon technologies requires the adaptation of present and future national energy infrastructure to long-term challenges such as climate change and emerging trends in consumer demand. Over the coming centuries it is the impact of flooding from rising sea-levels combined with increases in extreme water levels and wave heights which has the potential to directly impact coastal energy infrastructure, including new developments for renewable and nuclear energy generation and transmission. The long operational timescales of this infrastructure means accurate projection of potential future flooding and reducing vulnerability is essential.

The two main drivers of coastal flooding are wave height and extreme water level (EWL), both of which have their inherent (and inter-related) magnitude/frequency characteristics. Recent work (Prime, submitted) has identified considerable differences in the projected extent and depth of flooding arising from combinations of wave height and EWL that have the same joint probability. A combination of high wave height and low EWL results in localized flooding when compared to a high EWL and low wave height of the same joint probability

This project will focus on flood inundation modelling based on joint probability of waves and extreme water levels determined from a combination of data time-series and hydrodynamic modelling (undertaken under co-supervision of Jenny Brown at NOC). Application of LISFLOOD-FP, a high resolution 2D hydrodynamic model will be coupled with XBeach-G, a wave simulation model that provides defence overtopping rates, to produce probable inundation scenarios for National Grid infrastructure at Barron-in-Furness and Heysham (sites for the Morecambe Bay interconnector tunnel) and the new nuclear power station site at Moorside. Analysis of the modelled flood simulations will allow probabilistic assessment of likely flooding from combinations of waves and extreme water levels, and how this will change over the period to 2200 AD due to sea-level rise. Based on the flood projections, the successful applicant will work with National Grid and NNL (agreed partners in this proposal) to identify the optimal design, locations and timings of practical interventions to ensure resilience to present and future extreme events.