Risk CDT - Iceberg calving and glacier retreat in populated fjords: past, present and future risks

PLEASE APPLY ONLINE TO THE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING, PROVIDING THE PROJECT TITLE, NAME OF THE PRIMARY SUPERVISOR AND SELECT THE PROGRAMME CODE "EGPR" (PHD - SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING)

This is a project within the multi-disciplinary EPSRC and ESRC Centre for Doctoral Training (CDT) on Quantification and Management of Risk & Uncertainty in Complex Systems & Environments, within the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty. The studentship is granted for 4 years and includes, in the first year, a Master in Decision Making under Risk & Uncertainty. The project includes extensive collaboration with prime industry to build an optimal basis for employability.

Icebergs calving from Greenlandic tidewater glaciers can pose a significant hazard to people, infrastructure and shipping. Collision, calving/iceberg collapse driven tsunamis, and iceberg capsize are risks experienced by Greenlanders past and present, while the likely opening of the North-West Passage as a future viable trade route will also increasingly expose commercial shipping to these risks. This project will aim to provide a long term perspective (approximately the last 1000 years) on the evolution of these risks within the major fjord system of Nuup Kangerlua (Godthåbsfjord), SW Greenland, before investigating how they will likely evolve into the future. It will achieve this through a focus on numerical modelling of iceberg calving in both idealised and real-world contexts to determine how behaviour has evolved at the 3 tidewater glaciers that drain into Nuup Kangerlua. In doing so, the project will investigate the present-day and future risks to the population of Greenland’s capital and largest port, Nuuk (located at the entrance to the fjord system), while also providing novel insight into the changing environmental risks experienced by the Viking Norse and Thule populations that have also inhabited the fjord system.

Tidewater glaciers are known to exhibit highly non-linear responses to climate forcing (e.g. Nick et al., 2009; Lea et al., 2014), with glaciers experiencing long periods of terminus stability and largely consistent calving fluxes before potentially undergoing rapid (<10 year) multi-kilometre retreats (e.g. Kjeldsen et al., 2015). These phases of rapid retreat tend to result in significant glacier acceleration near the terminus, and associated increases in iceberg calving fluxes. Once the glacier restabilises it is likely to be at a different configuration compared to the period prior to retreat, resulting in a new regime of stable iceberg calving behaviour. The hazards arising from calving prior to, during and after retreat events therefore have the potential to change significantly within relatively short (1-2 year) timeframes. This has important implications for both local communities and industry, with changing hazards potentially making traditional fishing/hunting grounds dangerous, radically impacting the accessibility and safety of current/prospective future mining sites and harbours (see weblink below). Changes in the size of icebergs being calved from glaciers may also result in changes to their longevity in the North Atlantic, resulting in risks to commercial shipping.

The project will be primarily based at the University of Liverpool, where the candidate will receive training in the numerical modelling techniques, and have access to the University’s Advanced Research Computing facilities (https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/csd/advanced-research-computing/facilities/). There will also be the opportunity for placements to the Centre for Ice and Climate, Copenhagen, and the project’s commercial partner in Greenland, Asiaq Greenland Survey (www.asiaq.gl). The latter will provide logistical support for fieldwork campaigns within the Nuup Kangerlua fjord system, in addition to academic support relating to the wider applicability and impact of results arising from the project.

We seek applications from candidates with an interest in glaciology and background in either Environmental Science, Engineering, Geography, Geology, Mathematics, or Physics related disciplines. Experience in coding is advantageous, but not required. We strongly encourage candidates to contact the lead supervisor (Dr James Lea, [Email Address Removed]) with expressions of interest and any queries about the topic.