Air pollution impacts on agriculture in China: improved process understanding and prediction

Rapid urbanisation and industrial growth in China has resulted in substantial economic growth, but also the emergence of important challenges in air quality, food security and sustainable development. China has 22% of the world’s population but only 7% of the world’s arable land. Northern and Eastern China is an important agricultural region, with fertile soils that support more than half of China’s agricultural yields. The region is characterized by extensive agricultural land use, but has also seen rapid economic expansion, leading to a growth in emissions and atmospheric abundances of pollutants such as ozone and aerosol, and frequent episodes of extreme degradations in air quality. Past studies have suggested that ozone may have substantial negative effects on Chinese crop production and food security and that particulate-induced reductions in surface radiation may reduce wheat and rice yields in China. These issues lead to a major challenge for Chinese policy makers in finding sustainable solutions that minimise harmful pollution effects on public health and crops, while sustaining economic growth.

In this project we will use a novel combination of regional air quality modelling, land surface modelling, Chinese surface observations, and satellite observations to investigate processes controlling exposure of crops and vegetation to pollution in Northern and Eastern China. We will produce an assessment of the efficacy of potential air pollution mitigation strategies in producing benefits to crop production from different regional and sectoral emission changes, including the effects of agricultural practices (crop burning) in addition to fossil fuel sources. The aim is to produce new understanding that will inform improvements in predictability of the harmful effects of ozone and aerosol on crops on timescales from weeks to decades.