British garden plants: a threat to the natural environment due to climate change?

Britain’s gardens contain many more plant species than are found wild in the UK. Around half of Britain’s naturally surviving flora comprises non-native species already, however most are found only occasionally and very few have so far become invasive. Under current climate change scenarios it is possible that garden plant species may further displace native species through escape into natural and semi-natural environments. This project aims to evaluate and contrast winners and losers under climate change. Which current garden species appear to be growing more successfully and reproducing outside the garden? Which species are becoming more difficult to grow? The research will integrate models of climate, soils and pathogen spread to gain a better understanding of which species present a risk to the natural environment in the UK.

Through the CEH, BSBI and RHS databases a large body of distribution data is already available. Additional data will be leveraged through a citizen science programme utilizing the vast member base of the RHS potentially augmented by the specialist botany community of the BSBI.

Project aims:

1. Pathogens aside, which species have the potential to establish as naturally reproducing species in the UK?
2. What are the patterns in the observed gain and loss of garden flora? (Opportunities for the gardener and risks for the environment)
3. What are the potential interactions between garden flora and pests and diseases (both native and introduced), including the potential risk of pests and diseases spreading to the natural environment from gardens.

More details are available on the project description at http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/nercdtp/home/available/desc/entry2017/SC201727.pdf and also by video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZGuPDmy35w&feature=youtu.be