Statistical analysis of risk, failure, and extreme event propagation in the airline industry using multi-level networks

***Enhanced stipend of £17,553 per annum plus additional support for computing equipment and travel***

Supervised by Dr Yves van Gennip and Dr Gilles Stupfler

This project will be based at the University of Nottingham in the School of Mathematical Sciences.

The goal of this project is to build a mathematical model for the spread of risk due to extreme events on multi-level networks and use advanced mathematical tools such as extreme value theory, modern results of mathematical statistics, and network theory, to analyse the model and compare the quantitative outcomes to real data. In particular, we will study this in the setting of the airline industry where failure of an electronic or mechanical component of an aircraft has an impact at the level of the component supply network, the airline network, and the airlines’ insurer network. In the airline industry, each airline forms relationships with component manufacturers and insurers.

The key goals of this project are to

• estimate the probability that an extreme event on one level of the network has significant consequences on another level;
• model the costs of such extreme events for the different actors in the various layers of the network.

Of particular interest is the estimation of the probability of failure of a critical component in an aircraft and the frequency with which such a failure results in a catastrophic event for an airline and ultimately in an extreme loss for insurers.

The work will be conducted in close collaboration with Russell Group, a company providing leading risk management software and service to insurers and reinsurers, especially in the airline industry. The company will provide data from the airline industry to incorporate in this project. The student will therefore benefit from a lively working environment combining academic life and the vision and ambitions of the private sector. The student should be prepared to spend some time at the company as part of the project, if necessary.

Summary: The project is open to UK students as well as non-UK EU students under certain conditions (enquire at the email addresses below) - Tuition fees paid, and an enhanced stipend of £17,553 per annum. There will also be some support available for you to claim for travel and computing equipment costs. The scholarship length will be 4 years.

Eligibility/Entry Requirements: We require an enthusiastic graduate with a 1st class degree in Mathematics, preferably of the MMath/MSc level, or an equivalent overseas qualification. This project will heavily use network modelling, statistical analysis of networks, and extreme value analysis, and as such, familiarity with one or several of these topics is highly desirable. Let us emphasise that while experience with more than one of the aforementioned mathematical fields would be beneficial, the willingness to learn and engage with all of them is an absolute necessity. The project also requires the student to have experience with a scientific computing software package or programming language such as MATLAB, R, C++, and/or Python.