About the Project
Recent research suggests that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have already increased the frequency and severity of UK flooding (Pall et al. 2011; Schaller et al. 2014). Future climate change is expected to increase extreme rainfall in the UK and a recent parliamentary report has determined flooding to be the most significant climate-related risk to the UK (ConCC, 2015). This project will understand changes in weather systems associated with extreme rainfall over the United Kingdom under future climate change and assess the impact on future flood episodes.
The Pennine hills of northern England are particularly prone to flood events due to the relatively wet climate and steep sided valleys, which channel water very rapidly into the valley bottom, causing river levels to rise sharply. The floods in the northern UK in December 2015 associated with Storm Desmond, Eva and Frank were devastating, with early estimates putting damage costs at £5 billion. On 26th December 2015, rainfall rates of more than 60mm in 24 hours caused the River Calder to reach its highest ever levels, causing severe flooding when the river burst its banks (fluvial flooding). Summertime flooding is also common in the United Kingdom; in 2012 heavy, often convective rainfall, caused flood damage to 4500 properties and £500 million of damage nationwide. The Calder Valley was affected by both fluvial and surface water (pluvial) flooding) during this very wet summer, where more than 900 homes and businesses were flooded. This project will use the Pennine region of northern England as a focus study area and will engage with local stakeholders such as Environmental consultants, Councils, Yorkshire Water and the Environment Agency.
Objectives:
• Utilise state-of-the-art climate model simulations to assess how extreme rainfall events may change in the future under warming due to greenhouse gases
• Assess the mechanisms behind the changes in rainfall events. What type of weather causes severe rainfall events and how may the severity and frequency of these weather patterns change in the future?
• Evaluate the ability of the climate model to reproduce realistic flood-producing severe weather (intensity, duration, frequency and seasonality) using ground-based radar, surface meteorological and rain gauge observations
• Quantify the benefits of using high-resolution climate model simulations compared to traditional climate models
• Use existing hydrology and hydraulic models to assess how the extent, severity and probability of flood episodes in the Northern Pennines will change in response to future changes in extreme rainfall
• Utilise newly acquired river gauge measurements from the Calderdale river catchment to evaluate the hydrological and hydraulic models
• Work with industrial partners to ensure the catchment and river processes are represented correctly in the hydrology models and identify how project outcomes could translate into the flood risk dialogue that is ongoing within the catchments.
Funding Notes
This project is in competition for a School-allocated EPSRC Doctoral Training Partnership award. The competition is open to UK candidates but also those EU candidates who have met the residency requirements or who have lived in the UK for at least 3 years immediately preceding the commencement of the PhD. The award will be for up to 3.5 years and will include tuition fees (£4,500 for 2018/19). stipend (£14,553 for 2017/18), and research training and support grant. The start date will be October 2018.
References
References and further reading
• Chan, S. C. et al. (2015) Downturn in scaling of UK extreme rainfall with temperature for future hottest days, Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/NGEO2596.
• ConCC (2015) Progress in preparing for climate change, Report to Parliament, Committee on Climate Change, June 2015.
• Flato, G. et al. (2013) Evaluation of Climate Models. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Fowler, H. J. and Ekstrom, M. (2009) Multi-model ensemble estimate of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes. Int. J. Clim., 29, 385–416, doi:10.1002/joc.1827.
• Kay, A. L. et al. (2015) Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: baseline performance and future flood changes, Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1455-6.
• Gadian, A. et al. (2017) A case study of possible future summer convective precipitation over the UK and Europe from a regional climate projection. Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc.5336, (in press)
• Kendon, E. J. et al. (2014) Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model. Nature Climate Change, 4, 570–576, doi:10.1038/nclimate2258.
• Pall, P. et al. (2011) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000, Nature, 470, 382-385, doi:10.1038/nature09762.
• Prein, A. F. et al. (2015) A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361. doi:10.1002/2014RG000475.
• Schaller, N. et al. (2014) Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts, Nature Climate Change, 6, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2927.
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