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  Twentieth Century Storminess: Developing a Coherent Understanding of Long-term Trends and Decadal Variability


   School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences

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Prof Gregor LECKEBUSCH  No more applications being accepted  Competition Funded PhD Project (European/UK Students Only)

About the Project

Severe Extra-Tropical Cyclones are the major meteorological hazard to Europe. In total, the 10 most severe wind storms produced an insured damage of about US$ 34.2bn. Since the 1960s a steadily increase in North-Atlantic/European Storminess was observed until the mid-90s of the last century. This high level of storm activity and its related losses were strongly discussed in the light of anthropogenic climate change. Recent scientific research, investigating the 20th Century Reanalysis (1871-2008), reveals that North-Atlantic/European Storminess might be underlying a long-term positive trend with unprecedented high values in recent decades. This is partly not in common with local station observations (e.g. in the Netherlands) and questions concerning the coherence of different storminess measures are not answered yet. On the other side, reasons of multi-decadal variability of storminess are not fully identified and a broader understanding of storm variability is missing. Both problems might be linked. This project aims thus to develop a comprehensive understanding of storm variability for the last ca. 140 years. Consequently, research area 1 will further develop published research findings to coherent physical mechanisms leading to extreme storminess on synoptic scales as well as on multi-decadal scales. Thus, the link between surface based trend signals and steering mechanisms in the mid-troposphere will be investigated. Research Area 2 focuses on the role of large-scale precursor situations to wind storms and analyses in how far known teleconnection pattern (NAO) are consistent with the storminess signal identified. Research Area 3 will specifically investigate in how far a maximum of storminess at the beginning of the last century compares to the latest peak in activity. Potential differences in the physical steering mechanisms as well as in the large-scale conditions will be addressed. The findings should be discussed in the context of detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change signals.

Funding Notes

Applicants for this project will be considered for PhD funding at Home & EU level, via an internal selection procedure at GEES, University of Birmingham. Candidates are advised to consult the full project description on the GEES website at http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/schools/gees/courses/postgraduate/phd.aspx and to follow the applications procedure outlined on that webpage. The deadline for applications is end of January 2012.



References

1. Compo et al. (2011), Q. J. R.Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1–28, doi:10.1002/qj.776.
2. Donat, Renggli, Wild, Alexander, Leckebusch, Ulbrich (2011) Geophys. Res. Let., 38, L14703.
3. Leckebusch, Renggli, Ulbrich (2008) Meteorol. Z., Vol. 17, No. 5, 575-587.
4. MunichRe, 2010
5. Nissen, Ulbrich, Leckebusch (2011) submitted to GRL
6. Pinto, Zacharias, Leckebusch, Ulbrich (2009) Climate Dynamics, Vol. 32, 711-737.
7. Smits et al. (2005) Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1331-1344.
8. Ulbrich, Leckebusch, Pinto (2009) Theo. Appl. Climatology, Vol. 96, No. 1-2, 117-131.
9. Vautard et al. (2010) Nat. Geosci., 3, 756–761, doi:10.1038/ngeo979.
10. Wang et al. (2011) Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1107-0, in press.

Open Days


Project supervisors

Career overview

Professor Gregor C. Leckebusch studied Meteorology at the University of Cologne in Germany, where he completed his PhD on meteorological diagnostics of polar ice cores through paleoclimate model simulations. Following his doctoral studies, he worked as a Postdoctoral researcher focusing on regional extreme event modelling and impact assessment. He served as an Associate Professor at Freie University of Berlin from 2004 to 2010, where he completed his Habilitation in 2009. He also held the position of Acting Chair of Dynamical Meteorology at the University of Leipzig during the 2010/2011 academic year before joining the University of Birmingham in 2011. At Birmingham, he was the Director of the NERC DTP CENTA from 2019 to 2022 and has been a Professor of Meteorology and Climatology since 2019. In October 2022, he was appointed as the UK Met Office Joint Chair at the University of Birmingham. His research expertise lies in the study of meteorological and climatological extreme events, focusing on natural variability and anthropogenic changes, particularly in relation to cyclones and storms. He aims to enhance the understanding of physical processes in the coupled climate system that lead to extreme storms or precipitation and to assess predictability across various time scales.


Research interests

Professor Gregor C. Leckebusch''s research focuses on meteorological and climatological extreme events, particularly the natural variability and anthropogenic changes in phenomena such as cyclones and storms. His work aims to enhance understanding of the physical processes within the coupled climate system that lead to extreme storms and precipitation, as well as to assess predictability across various timescales. He has been involved in over 30 national and international research and training grants, with a total funding exceeding £13 million. His research includes topics such as extreme wind storms, trends in forest fire occurrences under future climate conditions, and the interannual variability of extreme hazards in the Atlantic and Northwest Pacific. Professor Leckebusch has published approximately 70 articles in peer-reviewed journals, contributing significantly to the field with over 6000 citations. He is also the convener of the EGU session on ''Mid-latitude Cyclones and Storms: Diagnostics of Observed and Future Trends, and related Impacts.'' His collaborations with leading re-insurance and catastrophe modelling companies have funded several projects addressing critical issues like parametric insurance thresholds for typhoons and the risk of post-tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic.

View Professor Gregor C. Leckebusch's profile