Radiative forcing contribution to the slowdown in global surface temperature trends

Radiative forcing contribution to the slowdown in global surface temperature trends
Prof Piers Forster, Dr Alexandru Rap

Background
The global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has not warmed as much over the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Possible reasons for this are a weaker radiative forcing trend or weaker climate response (compared to previous decades). Alternatively, internal variability could be leading to more uptake of heat by the ocean. However, uncertainties in the forcing and ocean heat uptake have hindered progress in understanding. Crucially, climate models do not capture this “hiatus” in warming and our lack of understanding significantly impacts confidence in projections of future surface warming.
External forcings such as changes in solar radiation and volcanic eruptions have been suggested as contributors to the slowing in temperature rise. Determining accurate forcing trends over recent decades is therefore crucial to understand reasons for this pause in GMST warming and its implications. To understand trends in climate models it is also important to diagnose their forcing accurately. Unfortunately actual forcing trends are uncertain (IPCC AR5, Chapter 8, see Figure 8.17). Further, diagnosis of forcing within transient climate model runs is poor (Forster et al., 2013).

Objectives
• Quantify recent past forcing trends from greenhouse gases, aerosol, solar and volcanic changes
• Improve the diagnosis of forcing within a coupled climate model framework

Potential for high impact outcome
The student will be directly working on one of the most exciting and topical areas of climate science. This area has had considerable media coverage over the last year. You will hopefully lead high impact publications and attend conferences where there will be great interest in your work from fellow scientists, policy makers and the media
Training
You will be trained in the analysis of climate model data on Linux computer systems. You will learn radiative transfer and climate physics. You will use and manipulate satellite data, and develop a sound understanding of climate observations and their uncertainty. You will learn how to communicate science at a climate policy interface and how to write high impact journal publications. You will be working in and supported by the physical climate change group in SEE.
Suitable academic backgrounds include (but are not limited to) physics, mathematics or chemistry first degrees and/or masters qualifications in areas of weather, climate and environmental science.